https://finanzasdomesticas.com/2020principales-riesgos-mundiales-2021/

Despite the fact that a new year has begun,https://finanzasdomesticas.com/2020principales-riesgos-mundiales-2021/ many people believed the COVID-19 pandemic would end. Still, it endures, as does the worldwide predicament it has brought about. We will discuss the primary worldwide threats that the pandemic will persist in posing in 2021.

In a research published this week, the New York City-based political risk consultant Eurasia Group described the United States as the “most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world’s industrial democracies,” setting the stage for the year 2021. Nevertheless, China, “a state-capitalist, authoritarian, techno-surveillance regime, is America’s strongest competitor.”

The world is still in the “worst crisis it has experienced in generations,” according to the report, but “when the most powerful country is so divided, everyone has a problem.” Normally, nations would look to the United States for leadership. Global threats related to cybersecurity and health care will worsen in the new year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Table of Contents

Top worldwide dangers for 2021

On September 6, 2020, in Beijing, during the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS), a boy examines Sinovac Biotech LTD’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate. (Image by AFP/NOEL CELIS) (Image courtesy of AFP/NOEL CELIS via Getty Images))

These are the primary international threats that the Eurasia Group has identified for 2021.

COVID-19, Latin America, and this year’s elections

Widespread vaccines won’t be accessible in many Latin American countries until well into the second half of 2021, the paper claims, and a second coronavirus epidemic would have catastrophic effects on already fragile economies.

Countries that have seen “significant fiscal deterioration,” including Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Ecuador, Peru, and Peru, are becoming more susceptible in addition to the impending elections. There will probably be less money spent on social service-related policies.

Middle East energy costs are low

Some countries in the region have suffered the twin financial cost of the COVID-19 epidemic, with energy-related income also plummeting, and will continue to reel from both forces far into 2021. The pandemic has reduced worldwide energy consumption. Iraq, whose 90% of government income comes from oil, is said to be facing the most difficulties, and the country’s increasingly precarious economic situation is expected to spark more violent protests.

The study stated that with an impending election and a new constitution, unrest in Algeria is also a possibility. Among other countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar will be impacted by low oil prices.

Turkey’s economic pressures

Turkey is experiencing the fallout from the financial crisis it escaped in 2020 by implementing pro-market policies and implementing a “more orthodox monetary policy,” despite the nation’s “poor response to COVID-19.”

According to the article, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political base would be further impacted by the country’s central bank’s approval of interest rate hikes, which will erode his popularity and increase societal unrest.

Erdogan will be “cornered” without the backing of his allies and is likely to adopt harsher measures, escalating tensions with the Middle East and the European Union. The research states that “the possibility of a military confrontation is increasing” for Turkey in some places.

There is a growing rift between the US and China.

US-China ties will remain strained in 2021 despite the election of a new US presidential administration as the two superpowers compete “to heal the world and another to make the world greener.”

In its interactions with China, the government of President-elect Joe Biden may implement new strategies by enlisting allies and “seeking a multilateral front against China’s specific economic and security policies.”

That won’t happen easily, though, the article claims, and putting up a united front against the nation will probably provoke retaliation against other nations that cooperate with the US.

Changes in climate

“Climate will change from a playing field of global cooperation to a playing field of global competition in 2021,” the research states. Many world leaders are competing to be at the forefront of the climate conversation, with South Korea, Japan, the EU, the UK, China, and Canada committing to becoming carbon neutral by the middle of the century and President-elect Joe Biden promising to rejoin the Paris Agreement on the first day of his administration. “The result will be an already fractured world that drifts even further apart,” the report’s authors write.

a protracted and inconsistent COVID-19 recovery

A significant worldwide concern for 2021 is the protracted and unequal pandemic recovery. Despite the start of a new year, COVID-19 still exists and will keep having an impact on people’s daily lives all around the world. Although the global response to numerous vaccines has been encouraging, the research predicts that the vaccine deployment will present challenges in 2021. in addition to the enormous public debt and job losses.

The paper claims that disparities in recovery rates within and between nations may potentially incite resentment and agitation among the populace. In the meanwhile, there will be a global K-shaped recovery that will see the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

https://finanzasdomesticas.com/2020principales-riesgos-mundiales-2021/

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